At the close of 1999, many people involved in an Internet-connected business lived in a sort of a giddy, triumphal euphoria. Then in April 2000, the collapse of the US NASDAQ Index signalled the end of the giddiness. In the months since, operations like Garden.com and Pets.com and Quitealotofthings.com have shrunk or even closed.
Dot-com strife doesn't just hurt the dot-coms and their employees, of course. It hurts their accountants and their Web designers and their landlords and the people who sell them organic foccaccia at lunchtime. In the US, this phenomena is best represented by the November 2000 decision of Internet consulting company iXL to lay off 850 - count them, 850 - staff. Across the Web industry, euphoria has given way to doubt.
But while some sites lie bleeding in the gutter of the information superhighway, others are accelerating. How do you divine the future for your site - or the sites you're supplying? Here's a quick guide:
The Walking Dead
These companies are about to close, but many of their twentysomething staffers don't know that yet. These staffers cannot remember a business environment in which the Web was not sexy. They still don't know exactly how their Web site will make money, but they think the Internet stock market will turn round real soon. Right up until the death, they'll be assuring suppliers that "coolness will win" and "our owners really get the 'Net". They're struck dumb when the owners arrive and ask them to justify their existence in business terms.
Next step: "Please ensure you remove all personal items from your desk and drawer units".
The Maimed
They brought "new economy" values to an "old-economy" activity like selling cars or electrical goods or providing entertainment. They floated, or speculated about floating for a nine-figure sum. They kept that nine-figure sum in mindeven after the April 2000 "tech wreck" began the long erosion of Internet stock prices. They believed that the special features of their site would see them triumphant against apparently identical rivals. Then the company suddenly stopped putting fresh flowers on the reception desk and buying fresh beans for the coffee machine, and reports appeared that the site's owners were talking with a - gasp! - old-economy company about a sale. One million dollars of annual sales sounded like such a lot, but those old-economy guys treat it as though it was ... nothing.
Next step: "The new management will be conducting a full-scale re-examination of staffing levels".
The Bruised
They were the insurgents, the "new-economy" minds in big "old-economy" companies. They built a Web site, connected it to that old legacy back-office application, hired their own marketing staff and insisted their firm move at "Internet speed". People from other divisions gave them slightly awed looks in the cafeteria. But the old-economy management types insisted they explain how their site would eventually create some value for the company. Now it turns out that maybe that wasn't such a bad idea after all ...
Next step: "Time to revise the business plan again"
The Prepared
They started in borrowed accommodation, called in favours and used Perl to build their Web site functionality. They worried about revenue and cost of operations. They never quite felt part of the "Internet industry". Back on a warm evening in February 2000 they held a long, boozy discussion about why they weren't getting rich when everyone else seemed to be. Then in May 2000, they noticed other people in that "Internet industry" starting to take them more seriously.
Next step: "Portal ad banner space finally looks cost-competitive".
The successful commercial sites of 2001 and beyond don't rely on making money out of investors' gullibility. They spend money like it belonged to them and think long and hard about business objectives. They tell no tales of the bright new mystical world just over the horizon. They just build sites that people trust to help them understand issues and perform tasks.
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